Not Welcome Anymore: The Effect of Electoral Incentives on the Reception of Refugees

Abstract

Do electoral incentives affect immigration policies? Exploiting the Italian system for refugees’
reception and data from Italian municipalities, we show that proximity to elections reduces
the probability that a municipality applies to host a refugee center by 26%, despite the
economic benefits arising from these centers. Low electoral competition and high shares of
extreme-right voters drive the effect. Our results are rationalized by a theoretical model and
can explain the unequal distribution of refugees across and within countries.

Keywords: Migration, reception of refugees, electoral incentives, fiscal grants

JEL Classification: R23, J61, D72, C23