Not Welcome Anymore: The Effect of Electoral Incentives on the Reception of Refugees

Abstract

Do electoral incentives affect immigration policies? Our model shows that politicians manipulate immigration policies for electoral reasons, and their behavior depends on the share of anti-immigrant voters and the level of electoral competition. Exploiting the Italian system for refugees' reception, we empirically show that electoral incentives reduce the probability of bidding for a refugee center by 24%, despite the economic benefits arising from these centers. High shares of extreme-right voters and low levels of electoral competition drive the effect. The results explain why it is difficult to reach an equal redistribution of refugees across and within countries.

Keywords: Migration, reception of refugees, electoral incentives, fiscal grants

JEL Classification: R23, J61, D72, C23