The Prospects for Activity in the UKCS to 2050 Under 'Lower for Longer' Oil and Gas Price Scenarios, and the Unexploited Potential
93 Pages Posted: 14 Sep 2017
Date Written: February 25, 2017
Using financial simulation modelling, including the Monte Carlo technique, this study makes projections of long term activity in the UK Continental Shelf under "lower for longer" oil and gas price scenarios. These were (1) $50 per barrel, and 40 pence per therm, and (2) $60 and 50 pence, all in real terms. The Monte Carlo technique was employed to project the distributions of discoveries from new exploration and the development and operating costs. The modelling was also conducted on a full data set of sanctioned fields, probable and possible fields, and technical reserves to project production, investment costs, operating costs and decommissioning costs to 2050. The modelling was undertaken separately for the 5 main producing areas of the UKCS. Key findings were that by 2050 up to 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent (bn boe) could be economically produced with a large unexploited potential of c. 5 bn boe, mostly located in small fields.
Keywords: Low oil prices and future activity in the UKCS, financial simulation modelling, Monte Carlo technique, sensitivity analysis
JEL Classification: D21, D24, G17, G18, G31, Q35, Q47
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation