Short-Term Impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom's Export of Goods

13 Pages Posted: 14 Sep 2017 Last revised: 30 Apr 2018

See all articles by Hiau Looi Kee

Hiau Looi Kee

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

Alessandro Nicita

United Nations - Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)

Date Written: September 13, 2017

Abstract

The short-term impact of Brexit on goods exports is assessed using the Overall Trade Restrictiveness Index of the United Kingdom's major trading partners. The analysis shows that in the short run, leaving the European Union may cause the United Kingdom's exports to the European Union to decrease by 2 percent, and the prospect of a major trade collapse post-Brexit is unlikely. This is because the European Union's Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariffs are higher on products that are less responsive to tariffs, and lower on products that are more responsive to tariffs.

Keywords: International Trade and Trade Rules, Rules of Origin, Trade and Multilateral Issues, Trade Policy, Transport and Trade Logistics

Suggested Citation

Kee, Hiau Looi and Nicita, Alessandro, Short-Term Impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom's Export of Goods (September 13, 2017). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8195, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3036712

Hiau Looi Kee (Contact Author)

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG) ( email )

1818 H. Street, N.W.
MSN3-311
Washington, DC 20433
United States
202-473-4155 (Phone)
202-522-1159 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://econ.worldbank.org/staff/hkee

Alessandro Nicita

United Nations - Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) ( email )

Palais des Nations
Office E 8074
Geneva, 1211
Switzerland

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