Option-Implied Variance Asymmetry and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

Abstract

We find a positive relationship between individual stocks' implied variance asymmetry, defined as the difference between upside and downside risk-neutral semivariances extracted from out-of-money options, and future stock returns. The high-minus-low hedge portfolio earns the excess return of 0.90% (0.67%) per month in equal-weighted (value-weighted) returns. We show that implied variance asymmetry provides a neat measure of risk-neutral skewness and outperforms the standard risk-neutral skewness in predicting the cross-section of future stock returns. Risk-based equilibrium asset pricing models can not explain such a positive relationship, which instead can be potentially explained by information asymmetry and informed trading.

Keywords: Risk-Neutral Semivariances, Implied Variance Asymmetry, Risk-Neutral Skewness, Return Predictability, Informed Trading, Liquidity

JEL Classification: G11, G12, G14