Actors, Decision-Making, and Institutions in Quantitative System Modelling

27 Pages Posted: 19 Sep 2017

See all articles by Enrica De Cian

Enrica De Cian

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM); CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

Shouro Dasgupta

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei; CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

Andries F. Hof

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

Mariësse A.E. van Sluisveld

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

Jonathan Kohler

Fraunhofer Institut für Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung

Benjamin Pfluger

Fraunhofer Institut für Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung

Detlef P. van Vuuren

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Bilthoven)

Date Written: September 18, 2017

Abstract

Increasing the realism with respect to the representation of actors, decision-making, and institutions is critical to better understand the transition towards a low-carbon sustainable society since actors, decision-making, and institutions are the defining elements of transition pathways. In this paper, we explore how this can be done by conducting a model-based scenario analysis. The increasing focus on implementation and transition dynamics towards long-term objectives requires a better comprehension of what drives change and how those changes can be accelerated. We explore opportunities that arise from a deeper engagement of quantitative systems modeling with socio-technical transitions studies, initiative-based learning, and applied economics. We argue that a number of opportunities for enriching the realism in model-based scenario analysis can arise through model refinements oriented towards a more detailed approach in terms of actor heterogeneity, as well as through integration across different analytical and disciplinary approaches.

Keywords: Modelling, Transition Pathways, Scenarios, Institutions, Governance

JEL Classification: C63, O10, P16, Q00, Q4, Q5

Suggested Citation

De Cian, Enrica and Dasgupta, Shouro and Hof, Andries F. and van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E. and Kohler, Jonathan and Pfluger, Benjamin and van Vuuren, Detlef P., Actors, Decision-Making, and Institutions in Quantitative System Modelling (September 18, 2017). FEEM Working Paper No. 46.2017. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3038695 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3038695

Enrica De Cian (Contact Author)

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

Campo S. M. Formosa, Castello 5252
Venice, 30122
Italy

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Shouro Dasgupta

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

Isola di San Giorgio 8
Venezia, VE 30124
Italy

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Andries F. Hof

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency ( email )

PO box 303
Bilthoven, 3720
Netherlands

Mariësse A.E. Van Sluisveld

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency ( email )

PO box 303
Bilthoven, 3720
Netherlands

Jonathan Kohler

Fraunhofer Institut für Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung

Breslauer Str. 48
Karlsruhe, 76139
United States

Benjamin Pfluger

Fraunhofer Institut für Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung ( email )

Breslauer Str. 48
Karlsruhe, 76139
United States

Detlef P. Van Vuuren

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Bilthoven)

Antonie van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9
Bilthoven, 3721 MA
Netherlands

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