Using Past Responders to Target Non-Responders

47 Pages Posted: 20 Sep 2017

See all articles by Theodoros Evgeniou

Theodoros Evgeniou

INSEAD

Duncan Simester

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management

Artem Timoshenko

Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University

Spyros Zoumpoulis

INSEAD - Decision Sciences

Date Written: September 18, 2017

Abstract

Firms must often decide how to target households that did not respond to past promotions. For example, when prospecting for new customers, households that purchase are no longer eligible, and so the remaining households are an increasingly pure pool of non-responders. Past response data reflects the behavior of households that responded, and these households generally differ from the rest in unobservable ways. We show that despite this, the decisions of the past responders in a group can help firms target the remaining non-responders. In particular, the timing of past responses can help to reveal whether a geographic region is (a) exhausted of future responders, or (b) the future responders just require additional exposures. We use this insight to develop three different timing measures. The measures are calculated and validated using a sequence of mailings in a large-scale field experiment. The measures perform well, even when some regions have only a handful of past responses to calibrate them. They confirm that the decisions of past responders can help firms target non-responders.

Suggested Citation

Evgeniou, Theodoros and Simester, Duncan and Timoshenko, Artem and Zoumpoulis, Spyros, Using Past Responders to Target Non-Responders (September 18, 2017). INSEAD Working Paper No. 2017/61/DSC, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3038737 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3038737

Theodoros Evgeniou (Contact Author)

INSEAD ( email )

Boulevard de Constance
77305 Fontainebleau Cedex
France

Duncan Simester

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )

Management Science
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States
617-258-0679 (Phone)
617-258-7597 (Fax)

Artem Timoshenko

Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University ( email )

2001 Sheridan Road
Evanston, IL 60208
United States

Spyros Zoumpoulis

INSEAD - Decision Sciences ( email )

France

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