Simulated vs. Empirical Weather Responsiveness of Crop Yields: U.S. Evidence and Implications for the Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change

71 Pages Posted: 19 Sep 2017

See all articles by Malcolm Mistry

Malcolm Mistry

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Ian Sue Wing

Boston University

Enrica De Cian

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM); CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

Date Written: August 2017

Abstract

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are the workhorse of assessments of the agricultural impacts of climate change. Yet the changes in crop yields projected by different models in response to the same meteorological forcing can differ substantially. Through an intermethod comparison, we provide a first glimpse into the origins and implications of this divergence — both among GGCMs and between GGCMs and historical observations. We examine yields of rain fed maize, wheat, and soybeans simulated by six GGCMs as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project-Fast Track (ISIMIP-FT) exercise, comparing 1981-2004 hindcast yields over the coterminous United States (U.S.) against U.S. Dept. of Agriculture (USDA) time series for about 1,000 counties. Leveraging the empirical climate change impacts literature, we estimate reduced-form econometric models of crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation exposures for both GGCMs and observations. We find that up to 60% of the variance in both simulated and observed yields is attributable to weather variation. Majority of the GGCMs have difficulty reproducing the observed distribution of percentage yield anomalies, and exhibit aggregate responses that show yields to be more weather-sensitive than in the observational record over the predominant range of temperature and precipitation conditions. This disparity is largely attributable to heterogeneity in GGCMs’ responses, as opposed to uncertainty in historical weather forcings, and is responsible for widely divergent impacts of climate on future crop yields.

Keywords: Climate Change Impacts, Crop Yields, Global Gridded Crop Models, ISI-MIP

JEL Classification: Q1, Q5

Suggested Citation

Mistry, Malcolm and Sue Wing, Ian and De Cian, Enrica, Simulated vs. Empirical Weather Responsiveness of Crop Yields: U.S. Evidence and Implications for the Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change (August 2017). FEEM Working Paper No. 41.2017. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3038743 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3038743

Malcolm Mistry (Contact Author)

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

C.so Magenta 63
Milano, 20123
Italy

Ian Sue Wing

Boston University ( email )

United States

Enrica De Cian

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

Campo S. M. Formosa, Castello 5252
Venice, 30122
Italy

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

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