Data-Driven Dynamic Decision Models

Nay, J. J., Gilligan, J. M. (2015). “Data-Driven Dynamic Decision Models”. Proceedings of the 2015 Winter Simulation Conference, 2752–2763. IEEE Press.

12 Pages Posted: 21 Sep 2017

See all articles by John Nay

John Nay

New York University School of Law

Jonathan M. Gilligan

Vanderbilt University - Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Vanderbilt Institute for Energy and Environment

Date Written: September 21, 2015

Abstract

This article outlines a method for automatically generating models of dynamic decision-making that both have strong predictive power and are interpretable in human terms. This is useful for designing empirically grounded agent-based simulations and for gaining direct insight into observed dynamic processes. We use an efficient model representation and a genetic algorithm-based estimation process to generate simple approximations that explain most of the structure of complex stochastic processes. This method, implemented in C and R, scales well to large data sets. We apply our methods to empirical data from human subjects game experiments and international relations. We also demonstrate the method’s ability to recover known data-generating processes by simulating data with agent-based models and correctly deriving the underlying decision models for multiple agent models and degrees of stochasticity.

Suggested Citation

Nay, John and Gilligan, Jonathan M., Data-Driven Dynamic Decision Models (September 21, 2015). Nay, J. J., Gilligan, J. M. (2015). “Data-Driven Dynamic Decision Models”. Proceedings of the 2015 Winter Simulation Conference, 2752–2763. IEEE Press., Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3040601

John Nay (Contact Author)

New York University School of Law

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United States

Jonathan M. Gilligan

Vanderbilt University - Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences ( email )

VU Station B #351805
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Nashville, TN 37235-1805
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615.322.2420 (Phone)
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HOME PAGE: http://https://www.jonathangilligan.org/

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering ( email )

2301 Vanderbilt Place
Nashville, TN 37240
United States

Vanderbilt Institute for Energy and Environment ( email )

2301 Vanderbilt Place
Nashville, TN 37240
United States

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