Marital Fertility Patterns and Nonmarital Birth Ratios: An Integrated Approach

Genus Journal of Population Sciences, 2019, 75:9; DOI: 10.1186/s41118-019-0056-z

15 Pages Posted: 22 Sep 2017 Last revised: 15 Feb 2019

Date Written: February 13, 2019

Abstract

In a 1974 paper, Coale and Trussell described an empirical relationship between the age-specific fertility rate, the marital fertility rate, and the proportion of women with first marriages. However, their key assumption was no nonmarital fertility. This obscures the relationship between nonmarital fertility and overall fertility that distinguishes many modern Western societies from those of East Asia. Here, their equation is extended to incorporate nonmarital fertility and dual equations are derived relating age-specific fertility, marital or nonmarital fertility, proportion of women with first marriages, and the proportion of births within or outside of marriage. These equations are validated with multi-year data from countries in Europe, the USA (both African-Americans and White Americans) and Japan. They also help to illustrate the dilemma facing modern societies: between a relatively high marriage age, low nonmarital birth ratios, and high fertility, they can only accommodate two in combination.

Keywords: General Fertility, Marital Fertility, Nonmarital Fertility, Marriage, Nonmarital Birth Ratios, Demographic Transition

JEL Classification: J10, J11, J12, J13

Suggested Citation

Smith, Reginald, Marital Fertility Patterns and Nonmarital Birth Ratios: An Integrated Approach (February 13, 2019). Genus Journal of Population Sciences, 2019, 75:9; DOI: 10.1186/s41118-019-0056-z, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3040633 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3040633

Reginald Smith (Contact Author)

Supreme Vinegar LLC ( email )

3430 Progress Dr.
Suite D
Bensalem, PA 19020

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