What Accounts for the Emergence of Malthusian Fertility in Transition Economies?

39 Pages Posted: 25 Mar 2002

See all articles by Maja Branko Micevska

Maja Branko Micevska

University of Bonn - Center for Development Research (ZEF)

Paul J. Zak

Claremont Graduate University - Center for Neuroeconomics Studies

Date Written: February 2002

Abstract

The transition to market-oriented economies in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union in the 1990s, like the Great Depression in the U.S. and Germany in the 1930s, generated sharp declines in real incomes and a corresponding drop in fertility. This is contrary to the robust negative relationship between income and fertility that has been extensively documented. This paper presents a theoretical model that explains the positive relationship between fertility and income. The model predicts that: i) the perceived level of subsistence consumption fundamentally determines whether fertility and income are positively or negatively related; ii) once incomes decline below a threshold, declining labor income causes fertility to fall; and iii) rising income inequality has a negative impact on fertility rates. Empirical tests using both aggregate and microeconomic data provide strong support for the predictions of the model. Our empirics predict that the perceived subsistence level is a statistically significant determinant of fertility and that the average country in our sample will remain in a Mathusian fertility regime for twenty more years.

Keywords: Fertility, Subsistence Consumption

JEL Classification: J13 , P20, I31

Suggested Citation

Micevska, Maja Branko and Zak, Paul J., What Accounts for the Emergence of Malthusian Fertility in Transition Economies? (February 2002). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=304280 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.304280

Maja Branko Micevska (Contact Author)

University of Bonn - Center for Development Research (ZEF) ( email )

Walter-Flex-Str. 3
Bonn, NRW 53113
Germany
+(49)228/731716 (Phone)
+(49)228/731869 (Fax)

Paul J. Zak

Claremont Graduate University - Center for Neuroeconomics Studies ( email )

160 E. 10th St.
Claremont, CA 91711-6165
United States

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
95
Abstract Views
1,726
Rank
495,965
PlumX Metrics