Emerging Markets Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?

35 Pages Posted: 29 Sep 2017

See all articles by Graciela Kaminsky

Graciela Kaminsky

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); George Washington University - Department of Economics

Sergio L. Schmukler

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: September 30, 2001

Abstract

Financial market instability has been the focus of attention of both academic and policy circles. Rating agencies have been under particular scrutiny lately as promoters of financial excesses, upgrading countries in good times and downgrading them in bad times. Using a panel of emerging economies, this paper examines whether sovereign ratings affect financial markets. The authors find that changes in sovereign ratings have an impact on country risk and stock returns. They also find that these changes are transmitted across countries, with neighbor-country effects being more significant. Rating upgrades (downgrades) tend to occur following market rallies (downturns). Countries with more vulnerable economies, as measured by low ratings, are more sensitive to changes in U.S. interest rates.

Keywords: Financial Intermediation, Environmental Economics & Policies, Banks & Banking Reform, Payment Systems & Infrastructure, Insurance & Risk Mitigation, Economic Theory & Research

Suggested Citation

Kaminsky, Graciela and Schmukler, Sergio, Emerging Markets Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns? (September 30, 2001). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2678. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3044148

Graciela Kaminsky (Contact Author)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Sergio Schmukler

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG) ( email )

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Washington, DC 20433
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202-522-3518 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.worldbank.org/en/about/people/s/sergio-schmukler

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