Fiscal Impacts of the Power Crisis in 2001 and 2002

IPEA Working Paper No. 816

34 Pages Posted: 10 May 2002

See all articles by Bolivar Pego Filho

Bolivar Pego Filho

Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) - Directory of Macroeconomic Policy & Studies (DIMAC)

José Aroudo Mota

Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) - Directory of Macroeconomic Policy & Studies (DIMAC)

José Carlos J. de Carvalho

Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) - Directory of Macroeconomic Policy & Studies (DIMAC)

Maurecio M.S. Pinheiro

Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) - Directory of Macroeconomic Policy & Studies (DIMAC)

Date Written: August 2001

Abstract

On May 18th 2001, the Brazilian government created the "Chamber of Management for the Power Crisis", whose aim is to reduce 20% of electricity supply, from June to November, especially on regions Southeast, Midwest and Northeast. The objective of this paper is to estimate the fiscal impacts of this crisis in 2001 and 2002, emphasizing the effects of a decrease in economic growth and an increase of interest, exchange and inflation rates on primary figures, net debt (PSND) and the public sector borrowing requirements (PSBR).

Through accountable models, one tries to estimate the fiscal effects of power crises, in 2001 and 2002. The main conclusion is that those effects won't be so strong, in order to jeopardize the fiscal targets (primary figures), because there is some space for adjustment. One estimates also that both PSND and PSBR in proportion of GDP will growth moderately in 2001 and 2002, although its performance will depend on both exchange and interest rates.

Note: The downloadable paper is written in Portuguese.

Keywords: financial publications

JEL Classification: H69

Suggested Citation

Filho, Bolivar Pego and Mota, José Aroudo and de Carvalho, José Carlos Jacob and Pinheiro, Maurecio M.S., Fiscal Impacts of the Power Crisis in 2001 and 2002 (August 2001). IPEA Working Paper No. 816. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=304699 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.304699

Bolivar Pego Filho

Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) - Directory of Macroeconomic Policy & Studies (DIMAC) ( email )

SBS Ed. BNDES Sala 714
70076-900 Brasilia
Brazil

José Aroudo Mota

Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) - Directory of Macroeconomic Policy & Studies (DIMAC) ( email )

Av. Presidente Antonio Carlos 51
16 Andar
Rio de Janeiro RJ 20020-010
Brazil

José Carlos Jacob De Carvalho (Contact Author)

Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) - Directory of Macroeconomic Policy & Studies (DIMAC) ( email )

Av. Presidente Antonio Carlos 51
16 Andar
Rio de Janeiro RJ 20020-010
Brazil
+55 21 3804 8000 (Phone)
+55 21 2240 1920 (Fax)

Maurecio M.S. Pinheiro

Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) - Directory of Macroeconomic Policy & Studies (DIMAC) ( email )

Av. Presidente Antonio Carlos 51
16 Andar
Rio de Janeiro RJ 20020-010
Brazil
+55 21 315-5161 (Phone)
+55 21 315-5400 (Fax)

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