Fiscal Impacts of the Power Crisis in 2001 and 2002
IPEA Working Paper No. 816
34 Pages Posted: 10 May 2002
Date Written: August 2001
On May 18th 2001, the Brazilian government created the "Chamber of Management for the Power Crisis", whose aim is to reduce 20% of electricity supply, from June to November, especially on regions Southeast, Midwest and Northeast. The objective of this paper is to estimate the fiscal impacts of this crisis in 2001 and 2002, emphasizing the effects of a decrease in economic growth and an increase of interest, exchange and inflation rates on primary figures, net debt (PSND) and the public sector borrowing requirements (PSBR).
Through accountable models, one tries to estimate the fiscal effects of power crises, in 2001 and 2002. The main conclusion is that those effects won't be so strong, in order to jeopardize the fiscal targets (primary figures), because there is some space for adjustment. One estimates also that both PSND and PSBR in proportion of GDP will growth moderately in 2001 and 2002, although its performance will depend on both exchange and interest rates.
Note: The downloadable paper is written in Portuguese.
Keywords: financial publications
JEL Classification: H69
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation