Real and Financial Cycles: Estimates Using Unobserved Component Models for the Italian Economy
39 Pages Posted: 4 Oct 2017
Date Written: July 19, 2017
In this paper we examine the empirical features of both the business and financial cycles in Italy. We employ univariate and multivariate trend-cycle decompositions based on unobserved component models. Univariate estimates highlight the different cyclical properties (persistence, duration and amplitude) of real GDP and real credit to the private sector. Multivariate estimates uncover the presence of feedback effects between the real and financial cycles. At the same time, in the most recent period (2015-2016), the multivariate approach highlights a wider output gap than that estimated by the univariate models considered in this paper.
Keywords: business cycle, financial cycle, unobserved components, model-based filters
JEL Classification: C32, E32, E44
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