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Scottish Independence Referendum: Risky or Not?

16 Pages Posted: 9 Oct 2017  

Mehmet F. Dicle

Loyola University New Orleans - Joseph A. Butt, S.J. College of Business

Betul Dicle

Independent

Date Written: October 9, 2017

Abstract

On September 18th, 2014, with a historic 84.7% turnout, Scottish voters declared their wish to stay as part of the UK with 55.3% No versus 44.7% Yes votes. During the period that leads to the referendum both sides made financial and economic claims that effected the actual outcome. Even the European Union, afraid of a contagious independence bid, supported this fear campaign. Financial markets reflect changes in risk. We provide evidence that Scottish independence referendum played a part in sending markets lower. However, evidence is clear that market risk is lower during and after the campaign and actual referendum periods. The referendum, according to the empirical financial evidence, not only did not increase financial risk, it actually lowered it.

Keywords: Scotland, Referendum, Market Volatility, Market Risk

JEL Classification: G10, G15, G18, F36

Suggested Citation

Dicle, Mehmet F. and Dicle, Betul, Scottish Independence Referendum: Risky or Not? (October 9, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3049960

Mehmet Dicle (Contact Author)

Loyola University New Orleans - Joseph A. Butt, S.J. College of Business ( email )

6363 St. Charles Avenue
New Orleans, LA 70118
United States

HOME PAGE: http://researchforprofit.com

Betul Dicle

Independent ( email )

No Address Available

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