Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Growth and Inflation in the Eurozone: A Causal Approach

12 Pages Posted: 12 Oct 2017

See all articles by Vasilios Plakandaras

Vasilios Plakandaras

Democritus University of Thrace

Rangan Gupta

University of Pretoria - Department of Economics

Periklis Gogas

Democritus University of Thrace - Department of Economics

Theophilos Papadimitriou

Department of Economics, Democritus University of Thrace

Date Written: October 12, 2017

Abstract

In this paper, we evaluate the causal relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty indices, inflation and growth rate for 17 Eurozone countries on a county level examination. In performing a series of linear and non-linear causality tests we find little evidence of a causal relationship between uncertainty and macroeconomic variables. Thus, macroeconomic analysis based on uncertainty indices should be treated with caution.

Keywords: output growth, inflation, uncertainty, causality

JEL Classification: C32, E23, E27, E31, E37

Suggested Citation

Plakandaras, Vasilios and Gupta, Rangan and Gogas, Periklis and Papadimitriou, Theophilos, Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Growth and Inflation in the Eurozone: A Causal Approach (October 12, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3051546 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3051546

Vasilios Plakandaras (Contact Author)

Democritus University of Thrace ( email )

University Campus
Komotini, 69100
Greece

Rangan Gupta

University of Pretoria - Department of Economics ( email )

Lynnwood Road
Hillcrest
Pretoria, 0002
South Africa

Periklis Gogas

Democritus University of Thrace - Department of Economics ( email )

Komotini, 69100
Greece

HOME PAGE: http://www.econ.duth.gr/personel/dep/gkogkas/index.en.shtml

Theophilos Papadimitriou

Department of Economics, Democritus University of Thrace ( email )

University Campus
Komotini, 69100
Greece

HOME PAGE: http://econ.duth.gr/author/papadimi/

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