Not All Silver Lining? The Great Recession and Road Traffic Accidents

41 Pages Posted: 17 Oct 2017

See all articles by Paola Bertoli

Paola Bertoli

University of Economics, Prague; Charles University in Prague - CERGE-EI, a joint workplace of Charles University and the Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences

Veronica Grembi

Sapienza University of Rome - Department of Earth Sciences and Forecasting Research Center, Prevention and Control of Geological Risks

Judit Vall Castelló

Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF) - Center for Research in Health and Economics (CRES)

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Date Written: September 2017

Abstract

We provide new evidence on the impact of recessions on traffic accidents by exploiting the case of Spain, where the effects of the 2008 economic crisis have been among the strongest in the developed world. We exploit differences in the incidence of the recession across Spanish provinces due to the unequal evolution of the real estate bubble across the territory. We use a unique dataset on the universe of traffic accidents in Spain between 2004 and 2011. We first follow the literature on the topic and examine the impact of the economic crisis on the probability of having a traffic accident. However, we also go one step further, as we are able to identify any changes in the composition of both victims and driving behaviors as a result of the crisis. First, our results show that the Great Recession reduced traffic accidents in Spain. Second, for the compositional effects, we report decreased probabilities of dying or reporting a serious injury. More important, we also detect an increase in the probability that people involved in an accident abuse alcohol and drugs. Our results are robust to different measures of the treatment (i.e., employment in the construction sector) and the use of a spatial fixed effects model and are not biased by anticipatory effects. Finally, we show that our findings are driven by less-populated areas. Thus, we suggest that alcohol and drug control measures be reinforced during recessions and more attention should be devoted to rural areas to to strengthen the reduction of road traffic accidents.

Suggested Citation

Bertoli, Paola and Grembi, Veronica and Castelló, Judit Vall, Not All Silver Lining? The Great Recession and Road Traffic Accidents (September 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3054505 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3054505

Paola Bertoli

University of Economics, Prague ( email )

Prague
Czech Republic

Charles University in Prague - CERGE-EI, a joint workplace of Charles University and the Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences ( email )

Politickych veznu 7
Prague, 111 21
Czech Republic

Veronica Grembi (Contact Author)

Sapienza University of Rome - Department of Earth Sciences and Forecasting Research Center, Prevention and Control of Geological Risks ( email )

Rome
Italy

Judit Vall Castelló

Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF) - Center for Research in Health and Economics (CRES) ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas, 25-27
Barcelona, 08005
Spain

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