인구고령화가 노동수급에 미치는 영향 (The Outlook and Challenges of Population Aging and Labor Market)

51 Pages Posted: 19 Oct 2017

See all articles by Chulhee Lee

Chulhee Lee

Seoul National University - School of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Jieun Lee

The Bank of Korea; Bank of Korea - Economic Research Institute

Date Written: August 11, 2017

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 인구변화로 인한 장기적인 노동투입의 감소는 노동공급규모의 지표에 따라 다를 것으로 전망된다. 현재와 같은 성별·연령별 노동공급패턴이 유지된다면 2050년의 취업인구와 총 노동시간은 각각 현재 수준의 88%와 83%로 감소할 것으로 예상된다. 인구변화로 인한 노동공급규모 감소정도는 장년 및 여성 고용 변화나 청년실업의 변화와 같은 노동공급의 장기적 변화에 크게 의존할 것이다. 노동수요가 장기적으로 어떻게 변화할지 확실하지 않기 때문에 인구고령화로 인해 노동공급규모가 크게 감소한다 하더라도 이것이 실제로 노동력 부족문제를 초래할지는 확실하지 않다. 또한 노동수요 변화가 일자리의 성격에 따라 다르기 때문에 노동수급사정이 산업별, 노동유형별로 큰 차이를 보일 것이다. 향후 10~15년 동안 전체 노동공급규모가 현재에 비해 줄어들지는 않을 것이지만 이미 노동인력의 고령화가 상당히 진행된 부문에서는 베이비 붐 세대 인구의 노동시장 퇴장이 미치는 영향이 클 수 있다. 특히 장기적으로 노동수요가 증가함에도 불구하고 신규인력이 충분히 진입하지 않아서 고령노동의 비중이 빠르게 높아지는 부문에서 이러한 노동부족 문제가 더 심각할 것이다.

English Abstract: The size of the labor force will diminish with on-going population aging. However, the magnitude of the anticipated decline remains unclear and differs according to the choice of labor input measure. If the current patterns of gender- and age-specific labor supply would remain unchanged, it is projected that the number of employed population and the total hours of work will decrease to 88% and 83% of the current levels, respectively. The actual decline in labor inputs will heavily depend on long-term changes of labor supply, especially employment of the elderly and women as well as unemployment of younger people. Given that long-term trend of labor demand is highly unpredictable, it is difficult to determine whether a large-scale decline in the work force (if actually emerged) will cause significant labor shortages. Furthermore, the extent of labor shortage will widely differ across industries and across worker types because of sectoral disparities in labor-demand changes. Over the next 10~15 years, the overall size of labor inputs in Korea will not diminish. However, the exit of the baby boom generation from the work force can produce serious labor shortages in sectors with high and increasing fractions of aging workers. In particular, population aging will hit hard the industries in which the entry of young workers is insufficient to meet rapidly growing labor demand.

Note: Downloadable document is in Korean.

Keywords: Population Aging, Labor Market

JEL Classification: J20, J21, J23, J24

Suggested Citation

Lee, Chulhee and Lee, Jieun, 인구고령화가 노동수급에 미치는 영향 (The Outlook and Challenges of Population Aging and Labor Market) (August 11, 2017). Bank of Korea 2017-30, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3055586 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3055586

Chulhee Lee

Seoul National University - School of Economics ( email )

San 56-1, Silim-dong, Kwanak-ku
Seoul 151-742
Korea

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Jieun Lee (Contact Author)

The Bank of Korea ( email )

110 3-Ga Namdaemunno Jung-Gu
Seoul 100-794, 100-794
Korea Republic of (South Korea)
82-2-759-5470 (Phone)

Bank of Korea - Economic Research Institute ( email )

110 3-Ga Namdaemunno Jung-Gu
Seoul 100-794
Korea Republic of (South Korea)

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