A Technique for Indicating Comparative and Perdicting Changes in Trade Ratios

20 Pages Posted: 9 Mar 2004 Last revised: 12 Oct 2022

See all articles by Robert E. Baldwin

Robert E. Baldwin

University of Wisconsin at Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Spence Hilton

Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Research Group; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: September 1983

Abstract

This paper estimates relative differences in factor prices (and thus industry comparative cost differences) between the United States and each of eight country groups by relating differences in factor-use requirement and actual bilateral export/import ratios across industries. Predictions concerning changes in industry export/import ratios are also made (and tested against actual subsequent changes) by comparing these trade ratios with those expected on the basis of the estimated average differences infactor costs and assuming that adjustment lags are the major reason for the differences between these ratios.

Suggested Citation

Baldwin, Robert E. and Hilton, Spence, A Technique for Indicating Comparative and Perdicting Changes in Trade Ratios (September 1983). NBER Working Paper No. w1198, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=305577

Robert E. Baldwin (Contact Author)

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Spence Hilton

Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Research Group ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Cambridge, MA 02138
United States