The Democratic Party is Facing a Demographic Crisis
24 Pages Posted: 23 Oct 2017
Date Written: February 28, 2017
At the time of Barack Obama's election, there was a widespread belief that as a result of demographic changes, the U.S. stood poised for an enduring Democratic majority that would radically reshape the American political system, its institutions and its values. However, rather than building on their historic gains, the Democrats suffered historic losses in the years that followed. Looking at exit-polls over the last six races (three midterm, 3 presidential), we see that not only does the Emerging Democratic Majority thesis lack empirical support, the trend actually seems to be going in the opposite direction.
Keywords: demography, polling, forecasting and prediction, elections, Trump, Obama, Clinton
JEL Classification: C02, C53, J11, Z18
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation