The Democratic Party is Facing a Demographic Crisis

24 Pages Posted: 23 Oct 2017

See all articles by Musa al-Gharbi

Musa al-Gharbi

Columbia University - Department of Sociology

Date Written: February 28, 2017


At the time of Barack Obama's election, there was a widespread belief that as a result of demographic changes, the U.S. stood poised for an enduring Democratic majority that would radically reshape the American political system, its institutions and its values. However, rather than building on their historic gains, the Democrats suffered historic losses in the years that followed. Looking at exit-polls over the last six races (three midterm, 3 presidential), we see that not only does the Emerging Democratic Majority thesis lack empirical support, the trend actually seems to be going in the opposite direction.

Keywords: demography, polling, forecasting and prediction, elections, Trump, Obama, Clinton

JEL Classification: C02, C53, J11, Z18

Suggested Citation

al-Gharbi, Musa, The Democratic Party is Facing a Demographic Crisis (February 28, 2017). Available at SSRN: or

Musa Al-Gharbi (Contact Author)

Columbia University - Department of Sociology ( email )

New York, NY 10027
United States


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