On the Consequences of the Us Withdrawal from the Kyoto/Bonn Protocol

32 Pages Posted: 28 Mar 2002

See all articles by Barbara K. Buchner

Barbara K. Buchner

International Energy Agency; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Carlo Carraro

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM); Ca' Foscari University of Venice; CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change (Climate Policy Division); IPCC; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels; Green Growth Knowledge Platform; International Center for Climate Governance

Igor Cersosimo

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Venice

Date Written: March 2002

Abstract

The US decision not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol and the recent outcomes of the Bonn and Marrakech Conferences of the Parties has important implications for both the effectiveness and the efficiency of future climate policies. Among these implications, those related with technical change and with the functioning of the international market for carbon emissions are particularly relevant, because these variables have the largest impact on the overall abatement cost to be born by Annex B countries in the short and in the long run. This Paper analyses the consequences of the US decision to withdraw from the Kyoto/Bonn Protocol both on technological innovation and on the price of emission permits (and, as a consequence, on abatement costs). A first goal is to assess the impact of the US defection on the price of permits and compliance costs when technological innovation and diffusion is taken into account (the model embodies international technological spillovers). A second goal is to understand for what reasons in the presence of endogenous and induced technical change the reduction of the price of permits is lower than in most empirical analyses recently circulated. A third goal is to assess the role of Russia in climate negotiations, its increased bargaining power and its eventual incentives to follow the US defections.

Keywords: Agreements, climate, policy, incentives, negotiations

JEL Classification: H00, H10, H30

Suggested Citation

Buchner, Barbara K. and Carraro, Carlo and Cersosimo, Igor, On the Consequences of the Us Withdrawal from the Kyoto/Bonn Protocol (March 2002). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=305613

Barbara K. Buchner (Contact Author)

International Energy Agency ( email )

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Carlo Carraro

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

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International Center for Climate Governance ( email )

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Igor Cersosimo

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Venice ( email )

Campo S. M. Formosa, Castello 5252
Venezia, 30122
Italy

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