Trump Will Likely Win Reelection in 2020

17 Pages Posted: 26 Oct 2017 Last revised: 28 Nov 2017

See all articles by Musa al-Gharbi

Musa al-Gharbi

Columbia University - Department of Sociology

Date Written: May 10, 2017


Most political analysts failed to anticipate Trump's victory in the 2016 Republican Primary or the 2016 General Election. Nonetheless, the prevailing consensus seems to be that Trump and his party are poised for major losses in 2018 and 2020 - assuming the President can survive in office long enough to stand for reelection. Yet the base-rate for reelection of modern U.S. presidents is roughly 89%. A survey of historical models, Trump's liabilities and his likely opposition suggest that - contrary to prevailing narratives about Donald Trump's deep weaknesses and virtually-inevitable defeat, the President seems strongly positioned to win a renewed mandate in 2020.

Keywords: Trump, 2020, 2016, Clinton, elections, prediction

JEL Classification: C12, C53, K40, P16

Suggested Citation

al-Gharbi, Musa, Trump Will Likely Win Reelection in 2020 (May 10, 2017). Available at SSRN: or

Musa Al-Gharbi (Contact Author)

Columbia University - Department of Sociology ( email )

New York, NY 10027
United States


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