Ever Closer or Lost at Sea? Scenarios for the Future of Transatlantic Relations

Forthcoming in Futures - The Journal of Policy, Planning and Futures Studies. DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2017.04.007

15 Pages Posted: 1 Nov 2017

See all articles by Sonja Kaufmann

Sonja Kaufmann

Hertie School of Governance

Mathis Lohaus

Free University of Berlin (FUB) - Department of Political and Social Sciences

Date Written: April 14, 2017

Abstract

Five key drivers will shape the future of transatlantic relations in the next decade. Generally, the extent of shared liberal culture and European collective action capacity are crucial for cooperation between the EU and US. Additionally, it matters whether policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic agree on a conception of global order, on how to handle future technologies, and on the use of military force. Building on these drivers we develop and discuss four scenarios. The first describes a world of selective cooperation as the EU disintegrates. In the second, the US withdraws from the global stage and Europeans are forced to assume a leadership position. The third depicts negative consequences from populist nationalism, reducing transatlantic cooperation to military action against perceived Islamist threats. In the fourth scenario we focus on future technology that threatens to overwhelm transatlantic regulatory capacity.

Keywords: Scenarios, Transatlantic Relations, European Union, Foreign Policy, International Relations

Suggested Citation

Kaufmann, Sonja and Lohaus, Mathis, Ever Closer or Lost at Sea? Scenarios for the Future of Transatlantic Relations (April 14, 2017). Forthcoming in Futures - The Journal of Policy, Planning and Futures Studies. DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2017.04.007. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3062561

Sonja Kaufmann

Hertie School of Governance ( email )

Friedrichstra├če 180
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Mathis Lohaus (Contact Author)

Free University of Berlin (FUB) - Department of Political and Social Sciences ( email )

Berlin, 14195
Germany

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