중국의 일대일로 전략 평가와 한국의 대응방안 (China's Belt and Road Initiative and Implications for the Korean Economy)

342 Pages Posted: 3 Nov 2017 Last revised: 6 Nov 2017

See all articles by Seung Lee

Seung Lee

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Hyun-Tai Lee

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Sangbaek Hyun

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Su Yeob Na

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Youngsun Kim

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Koun Cho

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Yunmi Oh

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Date Written: August 22, 2017

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 중국의 신(新)실크로드 구상인 일대일로(一帶一路) 전략은 중국 내륙지역을 중심으로 한 육상 실크로드와 연해지역을 중심으로 한 해상 실크로드로 나뉜다. 육상실크로드 해당 지역 대부분은 기존 동부 연해지역 위주의 대외개방정책에서 소외되었던 중국 중서부 및 동북부 등 내륙지역으로써 향후 대외교류 확대를 위해 주변 인접국가와의 인프라 연결 및 무역원활화 추진에 더욱 역점을 두고 있다. 해상실크로드 선상의 주요 지방정부는 아시아-유럽-아프리카를 잇는 해상 인프라 구축과 해양 협력 강화를 일대일로 전략의 핵심으로 제시하고 있다. 따라서 주요 항구를 거점으로 한 인프라 연결을 중요시하는 각 지방정부들은 해당 지역의 지리적 이점을 활용한 항공, 항만, 도로 건설 등 종합 교통 네트워크 및 물류 통신 정보 네트워크의 구축 등 이와 관련된 구체적 계획을 발표하였다. 한편, 일대일로가 중국의 새로운 대외전략 방향성을 제시하고, 중앙 부처별, 지방정부의 지역별 참여방안 마련을 통해 구체화 작업이 진행되었다는 성과에도 불구하고 앞으로 일대일로 추진에 있어 많은 과제에 직면해있다. 대외적으로 일대일로 연선국가는 대부분 개발도상국이나 빈곤 국가들로 구성되어 있고 정치적 종교적으로도 불안정한 지역이 적지 않다. 또한, 현 단계에서 주요 협력이 인프라 협력 위주로 추진되는 점은 중국 정부의 재정 부담으로 작용할 가능성이 크고, 구매력이 높지 않은 국가들과의 경제 협력은 단기적으로 무역, 투자 확대 효과가 크지 않을 가능성도 있다.

본 보고서에서는 일대일로의 오통 중에 경제협력과 가장 관련이 깊은 인프라, 자금, 무역 부문의 일대일로 진행상황에 대해 중국 연구의 총체적인 평가를 개괄하고, 세부 부문별로 중국과 연선국가간의 일대일로 전략의 진행상황을 분석하였다.

English Abstract: One Belt and One Road (B&R, 一带一路), China’s new Silk Road initiative, is largely divided into two parts: the Land Silk Road centered on China’s inland area and the Maritime Silk Road based in China’s coastal area. Most of the Land Silk Road area is located in the Midwest and the Northeast inland area of China, hitherto marginalized by the opening policy emphasizing the eastern coastal area. In order to expand future foreign exchanges, more emphasis has been placed on promoting infrastructure connection and trade facilitation. Local governments on the Maritime Silk Road are presenting the creation of maritime infrastructure connecting Asia-Europe-Africa and the strengthening of marine cooperation as the core of their B&R strategy. Therefore, each local government is emphasizing infrastructure connection centered on major ports and announcing concrete plans related to a comprehensive transportation network including aviation, harbor and road construction and logistics, communication, information networks making use of their geographical advantages. Meanwhile, despite the achievements made by the central and local governments through various regional participation plans, the B&R initiative is faced with several challenges ahead. Among B&R countries, there are many developing and poor countries that are unstable from a political and religious perspective.

Also, the fact that major cooperation at the present stage is promoted mainly by infrastructure cooperation is likely to act as a financial burden to the Chinese government, and economic cooperation with countries where buying power is not high is not expected to be significant in the near term.

This report scrutinized the Chinese researches assessing the progress of the B&R initiative, and analyzed the cooperation between China and the B&R countries in infrastructure, funding, and trade – issues which are closely related to the area of economic cooperation among the five areas (Wu Tong, 五通) specified within the B&R initiative.

Note: Downloadable document is in Korean.

Keywords: One Belt and One Road, Silk Road, China, B&R Strategy

Suggested Citation

Lee, Seung and Lee, Hyun-Tai and Hyun, Sangbaek and Na, Su Yeob and Kim, Youngsun and Cho, Koun and Oh, Yunmi, 중국의 일대일로 전략 평가와 한국의 대응방안 (China's Belt and Road Initiative and Implications for the Korean Economy) (August 22, 2017). KIEP No. Policy Analyses 17-03. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3063755 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3063755

Seung Lee (Contact Author)

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Hyun-Tai Lee

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Sangbaek Hyun

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Su Yeob Na

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Youngsun Kim

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Koun Cho

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

Yunmi Oh

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

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