The Great Recession and a Missing Generation of Exporters

52 Pages Posted: 5 Nov 2017

See all articles by William Fabius Lincoln

William Fabius Lincoln

Claremont McKenna College - Robert Day School of Economics and Finance

Andrew H. McCallum

Federal Reserve Board

Michael Siemer

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Date Written: 2017-11-03

Abstract

The collapse of international trade surrounding the Great Recession has garnered significant attention. This paper studies firm entry and exit in foreign markets and their role in the post-recession recovery of U.S. exports using confidential microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau. We find that incumbent exporters account for the vast majority of the decline in export volumes during the crisis. The recession also induced a missing generation of exporters, with large increases in exits and a substantial decline in entries into foreign markets. New exporters during these years tended to have larger export volumes, however, compensating for the decline in the number of exporting firms. Thus, while entry and exit were important for determining the variety of U.S. goods that were exported, they were less important for the trajectory of aggregate foreign sales.

Keywords: Business cycles, Entry, Exit, Exports, Financial crisis, Firm dynamics, Great recession, Recession

JEL Classification: F10, F40, E32, E44, J2

Suggested Citation

Lincoln, William Fabius and McCallum, Andrew Harrison and Siemer, Michael, The Great Recession and a Missing Generation of Exporters (2017-11-03). FEDS Working Paper No. 2017-108. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3065487 or http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2017.108

William Fabius Lincoln (Contact Author)

Claremont McKenna College - Robert Day School of Economics and Finance ( email )

500 E. Ninth St.
Claremont, CA 91711-6420
United States

Andrew Harrison McCallum

Federal Reserve Board ( email )

20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20551
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.andrewhmccallum.com

Michael Siemer

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20551
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.michael-siemer.com

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