Debunking the Myth of Southern Profligacy. A DSGE Analysis of Business Cycles in the EMU's Big Four
36 Pages Posted: 7 Nov 2017 Last revised: 20 Dec 2018
Date Written: November 3, 2017
We investigate the drivers of EMU big fours' business cycles in a DSGE model. Our approach allows to disentangle the role of demand and technology shocks, where the latter may generate permanent consequences on national productivity levels. For the years before the financial crisis we cannot find evidence of a demand-driven boom in Spain and Italy relative to what happened in France and Germany. The aftermath of the sovereign bond crisis was characterized by a sequence of adverse permanent technology shocks both in Spain and in Italy. These latter results are consistent with recent theoretical developments that emphasize the adverse supply-side effects of a credit crunch.
Keywords: Asymmetric Euro Crisis, Two-Country DSGE, Bayesian Estimation
JEL Classification: C11, C13, C32, E21, E32, E37
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