U. S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles

44 Pages Posted: 9 Nov 2017

See all articles by Falk Bräuning

Falk Bräuning

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Victoria Ivashina

Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: 2017-08-29

Abstract

Foreign banks’ lending to firms in emerging market economies (EMEs) is large and denominated primarily in U.S. dollars. This creates a direct connection between U.S. monetary policy and EME credit cycles. We estimate that over a typical U.S. monetary easing cycle, EME borrowers face a 32-percentage-point greater increase in the volume of loans issued by foreign banks than borrowers from developed markets face, with a similarly large effect upon reversal of the U.S. monetary policy stance. This result is robust across different geographical regions and industries, and holds for non-U.S. lenders, including those with little direct exposure to the U.S. economy. Local EME lenders do not offset the foreign bank capital flows; thus, U.S. monetary policy affects credit conditions for EME firms. We show that the spillover is stronger in higher-yielding and more financially open markets, and for firms with a higher reliance on foreign bank credit.

Keywords: global business cycle, monetary policy, emerging markets, reaching for yield

JEL Classification: E44, E52, F34, F44, G21

Suggested Citation

Bräuning, Falk and Ivashina, Victoria, U. S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles (2017-08-29). FRB of Boston Working Paper No. 17-9. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3067937

Falk Bräuning (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Boston ( email )

600 Atlantic Avenue
Boston, MA 02210
United States

Victoria Ivashina

Harvard University ( email )

Harvard Business School
Baker Library 233
Boston, MA 02163
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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