Terrorist Incidents and Tourism Demand: Evidence from Greece

Tourism Management Perspectives (2018), Volume 25, pp. 23-28, Forthcoming

18 Pages Posted: 14 Nov 2017

See all articles by Aristeidis Samitas

Aristeidis Samitas

University of the Aegean

Dimitrios Asteriou

Hellenic Open University

Stathis Polyzos

Zayed University

Dimitris Kenourgios

National and Kapodistrian University of Athens - Department of Economics

Date Written: November 10, 2017

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of terrorism on tourism demand in Greece using monthly data from 1977 to 2012. We investigate whether this relationship is bidirectional and whether it exhibits long run persistence. Thus, we employ a large dataset of terrorist incidents and perform cointegration and long-run causality tests, correcting our data for cyclical seasonality and applying PCA to construct a terrorism proxy according to the severity of the incident. Our findings concur that terrorism has a significant negative impact on tourist arrivals to Greece and that causality is noted from terrorism to tourism only. The results suggest that authorities should establish firm measures against terrorism and that further actions should be taken to promote tourism, safety and security, as a response to terrorist incidents. Our study is, to the best our knowledge, the first to approach terrorism using a three-factor proxy with qualitative features.

Keywords: Terrorism, Tourism demand, Cointegration, Error correction models

JEL Classification: C32, L83

Suggested Citation

Samitas, Aristeidis and Asteriou, Dimitrios and Polyzos, Stathis and Kenourgios, Dimitris, Terrorist Incidents and Tourism Demand: Evidence from Greece (November 10, 2017). Tourism Management Perspectives (2018), Volume 25, pp. 23-28, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3069019

Aristeidis Samitas

University of the Aegean ( email )

8 Michalon str.
Chios
Greece

Dimitrios Asteriou

Hellenic Open University ( email )

Bouboulinas 57-59
Patra, 26222
Greece

Stathis Polyzos (Contact Author)

Zayed University ( email )

Zayed University
P.O. Box 144534
Abu Dhabi
United Arab Emirates

Dimitris Kenourgios

National and Kapodistrian University of Athens - Department of Economics ( email )

1, Sofokleous Str
Office 521
Athens, 10559
Greece
+30 210 3689449 (Phone)

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