Forced Migration and Mortality

39 Pages Posted: 13 Nov 2017

See all articles by Thomas K. Bauer

Thomas K. Bauer

Rhine-Westphalia Institute for Economic Research (RWI-Essen); University of Bochum - Faculty of Economics; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Matthias Giesecke

University of Duisburg-Essen

Laura Janisch

Ruhr University of Bochum

Abstract

We examine the long-run effects of forced migration from Eastern Europe into post-war Germany. Existing evidence suggests that displaced individuals are worse off economically, facing a considerably lower income and a higher unemployment risk than comparable natives even twenty years after being expelled. We extend this literature by investigating the relative performance of forced migrants across the entire life cycle. Using social security records that document the exact date of death and a proxy for pre-retirement lifetime earnings, we estimate a significantly and considerably higher mortality risk among forced migrants compared to native West-Germans. The adverse displacement effect persists throughout the earnings distribution except for the top quintile. Although forced migrants are generally worse off regarding mortality outcomes, those with successful labor market histories seem to overcome the long-lasting negative consequences of flight and expulsion.

Keywords: forced migration, differential mortality, lifetime earnings, economic history

JEL Classification: I12, J61, O15, R23

Suggested Citation

Bauer, Thomas K. and Giesecke, Matthias and Janisch, Laura, Forced Migration and Mortality. IZA Discussion Paper No. 11116, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3069459

Thomas K. Bauer (Contact Author)

Rhine-Westphalia Institute for Economic Research (RWI-Essen) ( email )

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University of Bochum - Faculty of Economics ( email )

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IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

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+49 228 38 94 510 (Fax)

Matthias Giesecke

University of Duisburg-Essen ( email )

Lotharstrasse 1
Duisburg, 47048
Germany

Laura Janisch

Ruhr University of Bochum ( email )

Faculty of Management and Economics
Chair of International Economics
Bochum, 44780
Germany

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