A Strategy to Predict Association Football Players’ Passing Skills

22 Pages Posted: 16 Nov 2017

See all articles by Jorge Tovar

Jorge Tovar

Universidad de los Andes, Colombia - Department of Economics

Andres Clavijo

golyfutbol.com

Julian Cardenas

golyfutbol.com

Date Written: November 15, 2017

Abstract

Transfers are big business in association football. This paper develops a generalized additive mixed model that aids managers in predicting how a football player is expected to perform in a new team. It does so by using event-level data from the Spanish and the Colombian football leagues. Using passes as a performance proxy, the model exploits the richness of the data to account for the difficulty of each pass attempt performed by each player over an entire season. The model estimates are then used to determine how a player transferred from the Colombian league should perform in the Spanish league, taking into account that teammates and rivals’ abilities are different in the latter.

Keywords: Generalized additive mixed models, football, sports forecasting, passing

JEL Classification: C53, Z21, Z22

Suggested Citation

Tovar, Jorge and Clavijo, Andres and Cardenas, Julian, A Strategy to Predict Association Football Players’ Passing Skills (November 15, 2017). Documento CEDE No. 2017-63. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3071948 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3071948

Jorge Tovar (Contact Author)

Universidad de los Andes, Colombia - Department of Economics ( email )

Carrera 1a No. 18A-10
Santafe de Bogota, AA4976
Colombia

HOME PAGE: http://economia.uniandes.edu.co/profesores/planta/tovar_jorge

Andres Clavijo

golyfutbol.com ( email )

United States

Julian Cardenas

golyfutbol.com ( email )

United States

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