The Risk Premium of Gold
63 Pages Posted: 22 Nov 2017 Last revised: 22 Mar 2019
Date Written: November 20, 2017
This paper examines the properties of the gold risk premium. We estimate a parsimonious model for the gold risk premium and uncover important time variations in the dynamics of the risk premium. We also estimate the risk premia of the stock and bond markets and investigate their co-movements. The results show that the co-movements of expected gold returns with expected returns of stocks and bonds are positive, while co-movements of realized returns are zero or negative on average. This results holds not only during normal market periods, but also in times of market stress. Furthermore, we find no significant co-movement of expected and realized returns of gold with inflation.
Keywords: Jump Risk, Tail Risk, Safe Haven, Hedge, Gold
JEL Classification: G01, G10, G11, Q02
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