China’s Great Famine: Estimating the Short- and Long-Term Effects of Mao Zedong’s Four-Five-Eight Policy

Abstract

This paper studies a neglected institutional cause of China’s Great Famine: the “four-five-eight” policy. Mao Zedong wishfully proposed unrealistic grain yield targets for counties in China according to their geographic locations, which local governments strictly implemented in 1958. Using novel county-level data, we apply a spatial regression discontinuity design and find compelling evidence that the unrealistic yield targets led to excessive death tolls during 1958-61. We also find that China’s Great Famine caused serious deterioration in human capital accumulation for decades afterwards.

Keywords: China’s Great Famine, Four-Five-Eight Policy, Grain Yield Target, Spatial Regression Discontinuity Design

JEL Classification: N45, O53, P26, Q18