Renewable Energy Projections for Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Uncertainty and Errors

19 Pages Posted: 26 Nov 2017

See all articles by M. Indra al Irsyad

M. Indra al Irsyad

School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland

Anthony Halog

University of Queensland

Rabindra Nepal

University of Queensland - School of Economics

Date Written: November 21, 2017

Abstract

Failures of countries in setting and achieving renewable energy targets are prevalent, raising uncertainty about the overall contribution of renewable energy to global emission reductions. Lack of policy and incorrect modelling analysis are among the sources of the failures. Thus understanding these two sources is crucial to improve confidence about renewables. We assess errors in the projections of renewable energy capacity and production in the United States and European Union countries, which have high commitments to green energy supply. Our results show that solar energy has the lowest uncertainty due to having the most achievable projections of capacity and production. On the other hand, other renewables may entail attractive policies, and further research is needed related to advancing reliable technology and accurate weather predictions. Our findings also provide ranges of projection uncertainty of six renewable energy technologies and, at the same time, draw attention to ways to rectify the dominant errors in the renewable energy projections.

Keywords: Projection Error, Commitment, Technical Issues, Modeling and Policy

Suggested Citation

al Irsyad, M. Indra and Halog, Anthony and Nepal, Rabindra, Renewable Energy Projections for Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Uncertainty and Errors (November 21, 2017). CAMA Working Paper No. 74/2017, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3075583 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3075583

M. Indra al Irsyad

School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland ( email )

St Lucia
Brisbane, Queensland 4072
Australia

Anthony Halog

University of Queensland ( email )

St Lucia
Brisbane, Queensland 4072
Australia

Rabindra Nepal (Contact Author)

University of Queensland - School of Economics ( email )

Brisbane, QLD 4072
Australia

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