24 Pages Posted: 27 Nov 2017
Date Written: October 2017
In this paper, we analyse the time series of 12,000+ networks of traders in the E‐mini S&P 500 stock index futures contract and we empirically link network variables with financial variables more commonly used to describe market conditions. We show that network variables lead trading volume, intertrade duration, effective spreads, trade imbalances and other market liquidity measures. Network variables reflect information, information asymmetry and market liquidity and significantly presage future market conditions prior to volume or liquidity measures. We also find two‐way Granger‐causality between network variables and both returns and volatility, highlighting strong feedback between market conditions and trading behaviour.
Keywords: Financial forecasting and simulation, Network formation and analysis, Trading volume
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