Credit Shock Propagation Along Supply Chains: Evidence from the CDS Market
Forthcoming in Management Science
71 Pages Posted: 4 Dec 2017 Last revised: 20 Jul 2021
Date Written: November 27, 2017
Using a panel of Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads and supply chain links, we observe that both favorable and unfavorable credit shocks propagate through supply chains in the CDS market. Particularly, the three-day cumulative abnormal CDS spread change (CASC) is 63 basis points for firms whose customers experienced a CDS up-jump event (an adverse credit shock). The value is 74 basis points if their suppliers experienced a CDS up-jump event. The corresponding three-day CASC values are −36 and −38 basis points, respectively, for firms whose customers and suppliers, respectively, experienced an extreme CDS down-jump event (a favorable credit shock). These effects are approximately twice as large for adverse credit shocks originating from natural disasters. Credit shock propagation is absent in inactive supply chains, and is amplified if supply-chain partners are followed by the same analysts. Industry competition and financial linkages between supply chain partners, such as trade credit and large sales exposure, amplify the shock propagation along supply chains. Strong shock propagation persists through second and third supply-chain tiers for adverse shocks but attenuates for favorable shocks.
Keywords: supply chains, credit risk, CDS, propagation, supply networks
JEL Classification: E43, E51, G12, G14, G23, G24, G32, L11, L22
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation