Assessing Financial Vulnerability in Emerging Economies: A Summary of Empirical Results

47 Pages Posted: 1 Dec 2017

See all articles by Morris Goldstein

Morris Goldstein

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics

Graciela Kaminsky

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); George Washington University - Department of Economics

Carmen Reinhart

Harvard University

Date Written: June 30, 2000

Abstract

This paper aims to identify key empirical regularities in the run-up to banking and currency crises that would enable officials and private market participants to recognize vulnerability to financial crises at an earlier stage. This, in turn, should make it easier to motivate the corrective policy actions that would prevent such crises from actually taking place. Interest in identifying early warning indicators of financial crises has soared of late, stoked primarily by two factors. First, there is increasing recognition that banking and currency crises can be extremely costly to the countries in which they originate; in addition, these crises often spillover via a variety of channels to increase the vulnerability of other countries to financial crisis. The second reason for the increased interest in early warning indicators of financial crises is that there is accumulating evidence that two of the most closely watched market indicators of default and currency risks-namely, interest rate spreads and changes in credit ratings - frequently do not provide much advance warning of currency and banking crises. The other reason why market prices may not signal impending crises is that there are often widely and strongly-held expectations of a bail-out of a troubled borrower by the official sector be it national or international. Dooley has stressed this point in several papers. If interest rate spreads and sovereign credit ratings only give advance warning of financial crises once in a while, increased interest attaches to the question of whether there are other early-warning indicators that would do a better job, and if so, what are they? This is one of the key questions we address in this paper.

Keywords: Bank examination, Foreign exchange, Financial crisis

JEL Classification: F31, F32

Suggested Citation

Goldstein, Morris and Kaminsky, Graciela and Reinhart, Carmen, Assessing Financial Vulnerability in Emerging Economies: A Summary of Empirical Results (June 30, 2000). East Asian Economic Review, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 101-147, June 2000. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3080019 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3080019

Morris Goldstein (Contact Author)

Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics ( email )

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036-1903
United States

Graciela Kaminsky

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

George Washington University - Department of Economics ( email )

Monroe Hall
2115 G Street, NW
Washington, DC 20052
United States
202-994-6686 (Phone)
202-994-6147 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.gracielakaminsky.com/

Carmen Reinhart

Harvard University ( email )

79 John F. Kennedy Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
25
Abstract Views
271
PlumX Metrics