Demand, Supply, and Restraint: Determinants of Domestic Water Conflict and Cooperation

Global Environmental Change 29: 337–348

Posted: 5 Dec 2017 Last revised: 12 Dec 2017

See all articles by Tobias Boehmelt

Tobias Boehmelt

ETH Zürich

Thomas Bernauer

ETH Zurich

Halvard Buhaug

Peace Research Institute Oslo

Nils Petter Gleditsch

International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO)

Theresa Tribaldos

Independent

Gerdis Wischnath

Independent

Date Written: November 1, 2014

Abstract

This article focuses on one of the most likely empirical manifestations of the “environment-conflict” claim by examining how demand for and supply of water may lead to domestic water conflict. It also studies what factors may reduce the risk of conflict and, hence, induce cooperation. To this end, the article advances several theory-based arguments about the determinants of water conflict and cooperation, and then analyzes time-series cross-section data for 35 Mediterranean, Middle Eastern, and Sahel countries between 1997 and 2009. The empirical results show that demand-side drivers, such as population pressure, agricultural productivity, and economic development are likely to have a stronger impact on water conflict risk than supply-side factors, represented by climate variability. The analysis also reveals that violent water conflicts are extremely rare, and that factors conducive to restraint, such as stable political conditions, may stimulate cooperation. Overall, these results suggest that the joint analysis of demand, supply, and restraint improves our ability to account for domestic water-related conflict and cooperation.

Keywords: Climate variability, Demand, Restraint, Supply, Water conflict, Water cooperation

Suggested Citation

Boehmelt, Tobias and Bernauer, Thomas and Buhaug, Halvard and Gleditsch, Nils Petter and Tribaldos, Theresa and Wischnath, Gerdis, Demand, Supply, and Restraint: Determinants of Domestic Water Conflict and Cooperation (November 1, 2014). Global Environmental Change 29: 337–348. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3080274

Tobias Boehmelt (Contact Author)

ETH Zürich ( email )

Zürichbergstrasse 18
8092 Zurich, CH-1015
Switzerland

Thomas Bernauer

ETH Zurich ( email )

Center for Comparative and International Studies
Building IFW, office 45.1, Haldeneggsteig 4
Zurich 8092, 8092
Switzerland
+41 44 632 6466 (Phone)
+41 44 632 1289 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ib.ethz.ch

Halvard Buhaug

Peace Research Institute Oslo ( email )

Oslo, NO-0134
Norway

HOME PAGE: http://www.hbuhaug.com

Nils Petter Gleditsch

International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) ( email )

Oslo
N-0260 Oslo
Norway

Theresa Tribaldos

Independent ( email )

No Address Available

Gerdis Wischnath

Independent ( email )

No Address Available

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