One Effect to Rule Them All? A Comment on Climate and Conflict

Climatic Change 127/3-4: 391–397

Posted: 5 Dec 2017 Last revised: 12 Dec 2017

See all articles by Halvard Buhaug

Halvard Buhaug

Peace Research Institute Oslo

Jonas Nordkvelle

Independent

Thomas Bernauer

ETH Zurich

Tobias Boehmelt

ETH Zürich

Michael Brzoska

Independent

Joshua Busby

University of Texas at Austin - Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs

Antonio Ciccone

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Hanne Fjelde

International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO)

Erik Gartzke

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) - Department of Political Science

Nils Petter Gleditsch

International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO)

Jack A. Goldstone

George Mason University, Schar School of Policy and Government

Haavard Hegre

University of Oslo - Department of Political Science

Helge Holtermann

Independent

Vally Koubi

University of Bern - Department of Economics

Jasmin S. A. Link

Independent

Peter Michael Link

Independent

Paivi Lujala

Independent

John Loughlin

Independent

Clionadh Raleigh

International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO); University of Colorado at Boulder

Jürgen Scheffran

University of Hamburg

Janpeter Schilling

Independent

Todd Graham Smith

Independent

Ole Magnus Theisen

Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

Richard S. J. Tol

The Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin; Institute for Environmental Studies, Free University Amsterdam

Henrik Urdal

International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO)

Nina von Uexkull

Uppsala University - Department of Peace and Conflict Research

Date Written: 2014

Abstract

A recent Climatic Change review article reports a remarkable convergence of scientific evidence for a link between climatic events and violent intergroup conflict, thus departing markedly from other contemporary assessments of the empirical literature. This commentary revisits the review in order to understand the discrepancy. We believe the origins of the disagreement can be traced back to the review article’s underlying quantitative meta-analysis, which suffers from shortcomings with respect to sample selection and analytical coherence. A modified assessment that addresses some of these problems suggests that scientific research on climate and conflict to date has produced mixed and inconclusive results.

Suggested Citation

Buhaug, Halvard and Nordkvelle, Jonas and Bernauer, Thomas and Boehmelt, Tobias and Brzoska, Michael and Busby, Joshua and Ciccone, Antonio and Fjelde, Hanne and Gartzke, Erik and Gleditsch, Nils Petter and Goldstone, Jack A. and Hegre, Haavard and Holtermann, Helge and Koubi, Vally and Link, Jasmin S. A. and Link, Peter Michael and Lujala, Paivi and Loughlin, John and Raleigh, Clionadh and Scheffran, Jürgen and Schilling, Janpeter and Smith, Todd Graham and Theisen, Ole Magnus and Tol, Richard S. J. and Urdal, Henrik and von Uexkull, Nina, One Effect to Rule Them All? A Comment on Climate and Conflict (2014). Climatic Change 127/3-4: 391–397. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3080300

Halvard Buhaug (Contact Author)

Peace Research Institute Oslo ( email )

Oslo, NO-0134
Norway

HOME PAGE: http://www.hbuhaug.com

Jonas Nordkvelle

Independent ( email )

No Address Available

Thomas Bernauer

ETH Zurich ( email )

Center for Comparative and International Studies
Building IFW, office 45.1, Haldeneggsteig 4
Zurich 8092, 8092
Switzerland
+41 44 632 6466 (Phone)
+41 44 632 1289 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ib.ethz.ch

Tobias Boehmelt

ETH Zürich ( email )

Zürichbergstrasse 18
8092 Zurich, CH-1015
Switzerland

Michael Brzoska

Independent ( email )

No Address Available

Joshua Busby

University of Texas at Austin - Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs ( email )

2300 Red River St., Stop E2700
PO Box Y
Austin, TX 78713
United States

Antonio Ciccone

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27
Barcelona, 08005
Spain
+34 93 542 1669 (Phone)
+34 93 542 1746 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Hanne Fjelde

International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) ( email )

Oslo
N-0260 Oslo
Norway

Erik Gartzke

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) - Department of Political Science ( email )

9500 Gilman Drive
Code 0521
La Jolla, CA 92093-0521
United States

Nils Petter Gleditsch

International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) ( email )

Oslo
N-0260 Oslo
Norway

Jack A. Goldstone

George Mason University, Schar School of Policy and Government ( email )

3351 Fairfax Drive
Arlington, VA 22201
United States

Haavard Hegre

University of Oslo - Department of Political Science ( email )

Moltke Moesvei 31
Olso, 0851
Norway

Helge Holtermann

Independent ( email )

No Address Available

Vally Koubi

University of Bern - Department of Economics ( email )

Schanzeneckstrasse 1
Bern, CH-3001
Switzerland

Jasmin S. A. Link

Independent ( email )

No Address Available

Peter Michael Link

Independent ( email )

No Address Available

Paivi Lujala

Independent ( email )

No Address Available

John Loughlin

Independent ( email )

No Address Available

Clionadh Raleigh

International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) ( email )

Oslo
N-0260 Oslo
Norway

University of Colorado at Boulder ( email )

1070 Edinboro Drive
Boulder, CO 80309
United States

Jürgen Scheffran

University of Hamburg ( email )

Allende-Platz 1
Hamburg, 20146
Germany

Janpeter Schilling

Independent ( email )

No Address Available

Todd Graham Smith

Independent ( email )

No Address Available

Ole Magnus Theisen

Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) ( email )

Trondheim NO-7491
Norway

Richard S. J. Tol

The Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin ( email )

Whitaker Square
Sir John Rogerson's Quay
Dublin 2
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.esri.ie

Institute for Environmental Studies, Free University Amsterdam ( email )

De Boelelaan 1115
Amsterdam, 1081 HV
Netherlands

Henrik Urdal

International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) ( email )

Oslo
N-0260 Oslo
Norway

Nina Von Uexkull

Uppsala University - Department of Peace and Conflict Research ( email )

Box 514
Uppsala, 751 20
Sweden

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