Quantifying the Termination of NAFTA

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. Working Paper

102 Pages Posted: 7 Dec 2017 Last revised: 14 Aug 2018

See all articles by Dan Ciuriak

Dan Ciuriak

Ciuriak Consulting Inc.; Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI); C.D. Howe Institute; Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada; BKP Development Research & Consulting GmbH

Lucy Ciuriak

Independent

Ali Dadkhah

Ciuriak Consulting Inc.; Infinity Law

Jingliang Xiao

Infinite-Sum Modeling Inc.; Ciuriak Consulting Inc.

Date Written: November 27, 2017

Abstract

This paper quantifies the trade and economic impacts of the US terminating its NAFTA commitments under three alternative scenarios: NAFTA lapses with all three trading relationships reverting to WTO rules; NAFTA lapses but Canada and the United States retain bilateral free trade under the Canada-US FTA (CUSFTA); and Canada and Mexico trade remains under their bilateral NAFTA commitments. The impacts are evaluated using a computable general equilibrium model and takes into account the implications of imposing new tariff walls and removing the services and investment commitments under the NAFTA.

Keywords: NAFTA, Canada, Mexico, United States, computable general equilibrium, CGE modelling

JEL Classification: F13, F15

Suggested Citation

Ciuriak, Dan and Ciuriak, Lucy and Dadkhah, Ali and Xiao, Jingliang, Quantifying the Termination of NAFTA (November 27, 2017). Ciuriak Consulting Inc. Working Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3080591 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3080591

Dan Ciuriak (Contact Author)

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

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Lucy Ciuriak

Independent ( email )

Ali Dadkhah

Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

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Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

Infinity Law ( email )

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Victoria, V8V 3K3
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Jingliang Xiao

Infinite-Sum Modeling Inc. ( email )

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Vancouver, BC - British Columbia v4n1t3
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6047245981 (Fax)

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Ciuriak Consulting Inc. ( email )

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Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6H9
Canada

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