Can HIV Alter the Quantity-Quality Switch and Delay the Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa?

20 Pages Posted: 8 Dec 2017

See all articles by Luca Gori

Luca Gori

University of Geona - Department of Law and Economics - G.L.M. Casaregi

Enrico Lupi

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Department of Economics and Finance

Piero Manfredi

Universita di Pisa - Dipartimento di Statistica e Matematica Applicata

Mauro Sodini

Dipartimento di Statistica e Matematica Applicata all’Economia, Università di Pisa

Date Written: December 7, 2017

Abstract

According to the conventional theory of the demographic transition, mortality decline has represented the major trigger for fertility decline and eventually sustained economic development. In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the HIV/AIDS epidemic has had a devastating impact on mortality, by dramatically reversing, in high HIV-prevalence countries, the long-term positive trend in life expectancies. Despite the fact that SSA as a whole is suffering a delayed and slow fertility transition compared to other world’s regions, and despite evidence for halting or even reverting fertility decline in countries with severe HIV epidemics, there seems to be little concern amongst international policy makers about the ultimate impact that HIV might have on SSA fertility. This work reports model-based evidence of the potential for a HIV-triggered reversal of fertility in high HIV-prevalent SSA countries induced by the fall in education and human capital investments following the drop in life expectancy for young adults. This eventually breaks down the virtuous circle promoting the switch quantity-to-quality of children. This result suggests that the current evidence on fertility halting and declining education in high HIV-prevalent SSA countries should be seriously taken into consideration to prioritise current international interventions.

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, fertility transition, quantity-quality switch, HIV/AIDS epidemics, human capital accumulation, fertility reversal

JEL Classification: J11, J13, O1, O41

Suggested Citation

Gori, Luca and Lupi, Enrico and Manfredi, Piero and Sodini, Mauro, Can HIV Alter the Quantity-Quality Switch and Delay the Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa? (December 7, 2017). CEIS Working Paper No. 416. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3084123 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3084123

Luca Gori

University of Geona - Department of Law and Economics - G.L.M. Casaregi ( email )

Via Balbi, 30/19
Genoa, GE I - 16126
Italy
+39 010 209 95 03 (Phone)
+39 010 209 55 36 (Fax)

Enrico Lupi (Contact Author)

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Department of Economics and Finance ( email )

Rome
Italy

Piero Manfredi

Universita di Pisa - Dipartimento di Statistica e Matematica Applicata ( email )

Lungarno Pacinotti, 43
Pisa PI, 56126
Italy

Mauro Sodini

Dipartimento di Statistica e Matematica Applicata all’Economia, Università di Pisa ( email )

Piazza Arbarello, 8
Turin, I-10122
Italy

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
8
Abstract Views
163
PlumX Metrics