Al Qaeda and the Islamic State's Break: Strategic Strife or Lackluster Leadership?

55 Pages Posted: 10 Dec 2017

See all articles by Tricia Bacon

Tricia Bacon

American University - School of Public Affairs

Elizabeth Grimm Arsenault

Georgetown University - Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service (SFS)

Date Written: 2017

Abstract

Employing counterfactuals to assess individual and systemic explanations for the split between al Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), this article concludes that individual leaders factor greatly into terrorist alliance outcomes. Osama bin Laden was instrumental in keeping al Qaeda and ISIS allied as he prioritized unity and handled internal disputes more deftly than his successor, Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri. Although a troubled alliance, strategic differences between al Qaeda and ISIS were not sufficient to cause the split. Rather, the capabilities of al Qaeda’s leader determined the group’s ability to prevent alliance ruptures.

Suggested Citation

Bacon, Tricia and Grimm Arsenault, Elizabeth, Al Qaeda and the Islamic State's Break: Strategic Strife or Lackluster Leadership? (2017). American University School of Public Affairs Research Paper No. 3085275, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3085275 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3085275

Tricia Bacon (Contact Author)

American University - School of Public Affairs ( email )

Washington, DC 20016
United States

Elizabeth Grimm Arsenault

Georgetown University - Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service (SFS) ( email )

Washington, DC 20057
United States

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