The Effects of Conflict on Fertility: Evidence from the Genocide in Rwanda

Demography, 56 (3), 2019

47 Pages Posted: 11 Apr 2019 Last revised: 31 Dec 2020

See all articles by Kati Krähnert

Kati Krähnert

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)

Tilman Brück

IGZ - Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops; ISDC - International Security and Development Center; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Michele Di Maio

Sapienza University of Rome

Roberto Nisticò

Department of Economics and Statistics (DiSES), University of Naples Federico II; IZA Institute of Labor Economics; CSEF - University of Naples Federico II - Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: 2018

Abstract

Our study analyzes the fertility effects of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. We study the effects of violence on both the duration time to the first birth in the early post-genocide period and on the total number of post-genocide births per woman up to 15 years following the conflict. We use individual-level data from Demographic and Health Surveys, estimating survival and count data models. This article contributes to the literature on the demographic effects of violent conflict by testing two channels through which conflict influences fertility: (1) the type of violence exposure as measured by the death of a child or sibling, and (2) the conflict-induced change in local demographic conditions as captured by the change in the district-level sex ratio. Results indicate the genocide had heterogeneous effects on fertility, depending on the type of violence experienced by the woman, her age cohort, parity, and the time horizon (5, 10, and 15 years after the genocide). There is strong evidence of a child replacement effect. Having experienced the death of a child during the genocide increases both the hazard of having a child in the five years following the genocide and the total number of post-genocide births. Experiencing sibling death during the genocide significantly lowers post-genocide fertility in both the short-run and the long-run. Finally, a reduction in the local sex ratio negatively impacts the hazard of having a child in the five years following the genocide, especially for older women.

Keywords: child death, fertility, genocide, Rwanda, sex ratio, sibling death

Suggested Citation

Krähnert, Kati and Brück, Tilman and Di Maio, Michele and Nisticò, Roberto, The Effects of Conflict on Fertility: Evidence from the Genocide in Rwanda (2018). Demography, 56 (3), 2019, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3085769 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3085769

Kati Krähnert (Contact Author)

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Tilman Brück

IGZ - Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops ( email )

Theodor-Echtermeyer-Str. 1
Grossbeeren, 14979
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.igzev.de

ISDC - International Security and Development Center ( email )

Friedrichstr. 88
Berlin, 10117
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.isd-center.org

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Michele Di Maio

Sapienza University of Rome ( email )

via del Castro Laurenziano 9
Rome
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/a/uniroma1.it/micheledimaio/home

Roberto Nisticò

Department of Economics and Statistics (DiSES), University of Naples Federico II ( email )

Via Cintia 26
Naples, Napoli
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.dises.unina.it/

IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

CSEF - University of Naples Federico II - Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF) ( email )

Via Cintia
Complesso Monte S. Angelo
Naples, Naples 80126
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.dises.unina.it/

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

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