Would a Decrease in Fertility Be a Threat to Living Standards in Australia?

16 Pages Posted: 24 Apr 2002

See all articles by Ross S. Guest

Ross S. Guest

Griffith University - School of Accounting and Finance - Gold Coast Campus

Ian M. McDonald

University of Melbourne - Department of Economics

Abstract

Falling rates of fertility in many countries have led to concerns that low fertility is a threat to future living standards. In this article we report simulations of living standards for Australia that take into account the effect of demographic change. These simulations show that reduced fertility would actually increase living standards, albeit by a small amount. We also present projections of government social outlays. These projections suggest that reductions in fertility will have an insignificant or tiny tax-disincentive effect on GDP, thereby reinforcing our conclusion that reductions in fertility are not a threat to future living standards.

Suggested Citation

Guest, Ross and McDonald, Ian M., Would a Decrease in Fertility Be a Threat to Living Standards in Australia?. Australian Economic Review, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 29-44, March 2002. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=308778

Ross Guest (Contact Author)

Griffith University - School of Accounting and Finance - Gold Coast Campus ( email )

PMB 50 Gold Coast Mail Centre
9726 Queensland
Australia

Ian M. McDonald

University of Melbourne - Department of Economics ( email )

Melbourne, 3010
Australia

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