Pathogens, Weather Shocks and Civil Conflicts

36 Pages Posted: 17 Dec 2017

See all articles by Matteo Cervellati

Matteo Cervellati

University of Bologna - Department of Economics; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); Instituto de Análisis Económic (IAE) Barcelona

Uwe Sunde

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich - Faculty of Economics

Simona Valmori

University of Bologna

Date Written: December 2017

Abstract

This article documents a statistically strong and quantitatively relevant effect of high exposure to infectious diseases on the risk of civil conflicts. The analysis exploits data on the presence and endemicity of multi‐host vector‐transmitted pathogens in a country, which is closely related to geo‐climatic conditions due to the specific features of these pathogens. Exploiting within‐country variation over time shows that this effect of pathogen exposure is significantly amplified by weather shocks. The results indicate health shocks and the outbreak of epidemics as a potential channel, while we find no evidence that the effect works through alternative channels like income, population dynamics, or institutions.

Suggested Citation

Cervellati, Matteo and Sunde, Uwe and Valmori, Simona, Pathogens, Weather Shocks and Civil Conflicts (December 2017). The Economic Journal, Vol. 127, Issue 607, pp. 2581-2616, 2017. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3088281 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12430

Matteo Cervellati (Contact Author)

University of Bologna - Department of Economics ( email )

Strada Maggiore 45
Bologna, 40125
Italy
+39-2092605 (Phone)
+39-2092664 (Fax)

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.iza.org/

Instituto de Análisis Económic (IAE) Barcelona

Barcelona, Bellaterra 08193
Spain

Uwe Sunde

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich - Faculty of Economics ( email )

Ludwigstrasse 28
Munich, D-80539
Germany

Simona Valmori

University of Bologna ( email )

Piazza Scaravilli 2
Bologna, 40100
Italy

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