Short-Term GDP Forecasting: How Can Its Quality Be Improved

Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Moscow. 2017. No. 22, pp. 18-20

3 Pages Posted: 2 Jan 2018

See all articles by Yury Pleskachev

Yury Pleskachev

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Yuriy Ponomarev

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Moscow Campus; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Date Written: December 26, 2017

Abstract

The issue of short-term GDP forecasts and their quality became especially important during the crisis period 2014–2016. The quality of forecasts can be improved be making use of high-frequency information and incorporating it (instead of the published quarterly statistics) into the dynamic factor models applied in preparing GDP forecasts.

Keywords: Russian economy, GDP, forecasting

JEL Classification: H68

Suggested Citation

Pleskachev, Yury and Ponomarev, Yuriy, Short-Term GDP Forecasting: How Can Its Quality Be Improved (December 26, 2017). Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Moscow. 2017. No. 22, pp. 18-20, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3093226 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3093226

Yury Pleskachev (Contact Author)

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration ( email )

Vernadskogo Prospect 82
Moscow, 119571
Russia

Yuriy Ponomarev

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Moscow Campus ( email )

Moscow
Russia

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

3-5 Gazetny Lane
Moscow, 125009
Russia

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