Financial Stress Relationships Among Euro Area Countries: An R-Vine Copula Approach

Abstract

One of the biggest challenges of keeping Euro area financial stability is the negative comovement between the vulnerability of public finance, the financial sector, security markets stresses as well as economic growth, especially in peripheral economies. This paper utilities a ARMA-GARCH based R-vine copula method to explore tail dependence between the Financial Stress Indices of eleven euro area countries with an aim of understanding how financial stress are interacting with each other. We find larger economies in the Euro area tend to have closer upper tail dependence in terms of positive shocks, while smaller economies tend to have closer lower tail dependence with respect to negative shocks. The estimated R-vine shows Spain, Italy, France and Belgium are the most inter-connected nodes which underlying they might be more efficient targets to treat in order to achieve a quicker stabilizing. Our results relate to the fact that Eurozone is not a unified policy making area, therefore, it needs to follow divergent policies for taming the effects of financial instability to different regions or groups of economies that are more interconnected.

Keywords: Financial stress, FSI, Euro area, GARCH, Vine copula, regular vine

JEL Classification: E44, F47, G01