Nonlinear Effects of Oil Prices on Consumer Prices: A Comparative Study of Net Oil Consuming and Producing Countries

Abstract

In this paper, we implement a number of modified causality tests, including linear models, and nonlinear non-parametric Hiemstra – Jones and parametric Mackey – Glass models, to compare the causal relationships between changes in oil prices and consumer prices across large net oil consuming and producing countries. Our findings indicate that despite the inconclusive results in the extant literature, oil prices affect consumer prices mostly (non) linearly in net oil-consuming (-producing) countries through country-specific mechanisms. Moreover, the nonlinear causations are largely asymmetric.

Keywords: oil prices, consumer prices, oil consuming/producing countries, panel linear causality, nonlinear causality

JEL Classification: C14, E21, E31, Q43