Do Financial Analysts Fully Incorporate the Future Earnings Implications of Really Dirty Surplus into Their Earnings Forecasts?
46 Pages Posted: 14 Jan 2018
Date Written: November 1, 2017
This paper investigates whether sell-side equity analysts fully incorporate the future earnings implications of really dirty surplus (RDS) into their earnings forecasts. RDS refers to gains or losses from contingent equity transactions settled at prices other than the fair value. We find that analysts’ earnings forecasts are over-optimistic for firms with large RDS losses, RDS over-optimism is lower for firms with higher analyst following, and the over-optimism carries over to stock recommendations. Our findings suggest that the lack of fair value information in accounting records about the off-market settlement drives the RDS-related analyst over-optimism.
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