Economic Dynamics of Territorial Military Conflicts: The Case of Kashmir

Abstract

This paper intends to establish conceptual foundations of analyzing the economic dimensions of warfare. The Post-War Final Economic Damage Simulator (PFEDS) attempts to estimate the heterogeneous macroeconomic effects of a potential military conflict. The model suggests nine different indicators: (i) the territorial dispute tension, ∆T; (ii) the territorial dispute strategy, Sn; (iii) warfare dimension, Ak; (iv) warfare losses, -π, (v) warfare economic leaking, -Ψ, (vi) warfare economic desgrowth, -δw; (vii) the post-war economic damage, -Π; (viii) the post-war reconstruction plan, Rt; (ix) and the Mega-Disk Networks Analysis. The model investigates the territorial dispute between India and Pakistan (1947-2016) about Kashmir.

Keywords: India, Pakistan, War, Economic Modeling, Economic Desgrowth

JEL Classification: R11, R12