Technology Classification for the Purposes of Futures Studies

19 Pages Posted: 18 Jan 2018

See all articles by Ilya Kuzminov

Ilya Kuzminov

Higher School of Economics

Dirk Meissner

National Research University Higher School of Economics

Alina Lavrynenko

National Research University Higher School of Economics

Elena Khabirova

National Research University Higher School of Economics

Date Written: January 18, 2018

Abstract

The paper analyses problems associated with technologies classification for the purposes of futures studies, in order to ensure definitive inclusion of technologies in specific classes/types when conventional approaches to classification are applied. The evolution of classification approaches in the scope of science philosophy is shortly reviewed, together with the latest research on expert-based and computerised (algorithmic) classification and methodological dilemmas related to hierarchical aggregation of technological and production processes are analysed. Common problems with classifying technologies and industries frequently encountered in the age of converging technologies are examined, using the agricultural sector and related industries as an example. A case study of computerised classification of agricultural technologies based on clustering algorithms is presented, with a brief analysis of the potential and limitations of the methodology. For doing so a two-stage approach to classifying technologies is suggested, based on distinguishing between platform (multipurpose) and industry-specific technologies. An adaptive approach to analysing technological structures is proposed, based on many-to-many relationships and fuzzy logic principles.

Keywords: classification, typology, futures studies, science and technology development, technological structure, industry structure, text mining, tagging, network structures, fuzzy logic

JEL Classification: O14, O32, O33, Q16

Suggested Citation

Kuzminov, Ilya and Meissner, Dirk and Lavrynenko, Alina and Khabirova, Elena, Technology Classification for the Purposes of Futures Studies (January 18, 2018). Higher School of Economics Research Paper No. WP BRP 78/STI/2018. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3104451 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3104451

Ilya Kuzminov

Higher School of Economics ( email )

Myasnitskaya street, 20
Moscow, Moscow 119017
Russia

Dirk Meissner

National Research University Higher School of Economics ( email )

Myasnitskaya street 20
Moscow, Moscow 119017
Russia

Alina Lavrynenko

National Research University Higher School of Economics ( email )

Myasnitskaya street, 20
Moscow, Moscow 119017
Russia

Elena Khabirova (Contact Author)

National Research University Higher School of Economics ( email )

Myasnitskaya street, 20
Moscow, Moscow 119017
Russia

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