E-Cigarettes and Adult Smoking

22 Pages Posted: 22 Jan 2018

See all articles by Henry Saffer

Henry Saffer

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - NY Office

Dhaval Dave

Bentley University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - NY Office

Daniel Dench

City University of New York - CUNY Graduate Center

Michael Grossman

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), NY Office; CUNY The Graduate Center - Department of Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 2018

Abstract

Over the past few years, adult use of e-cigs has been increasing while adult smoking has been declining. Although there is a negative time correlation, it is important to determine if there is a causal effect of e-cig use on smoking. This is important because of the known health hazards associated with smoking. A key concern with most prior studies of e-cigs and smoking is that causality between e-cig use and cigarette use is ignored. One contribution of this paper is to estimate structural and reduced form equations that replace e-cig use with e-cig price in order to avoid this endogeneity problem. The data employed to estimate the empirical models come from the Tobacco Use Supplements (TUS). These data are from the combined July 2014, January 2015 and May 2015 waves of the TUS. The results show that e-cig use increases the probability of a quit attempt, the probability of a quit failure, the number of quit failures and the probability of a quit success. It is also estimated that a 10% federal excise tax on e-cigs would reduce the number of quitters in the US by more than 250,000 per year.

Suggested Citation

Saffer, Henry and Dave, Dhaval and Dench, Daniel and Grossman, Michael, E-Cigarettes and Adult Smoking (January 2018). NBER Working Paper No. w24212. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3106602

Henry Saffer (Contact Author)

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Dhaval Dave

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Daniel Dench

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Michael Grossman

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CUNY The Graduate Center - Department of Economics ( email )

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